China’s Problem Child

There is much to be said of China’s growth into a major economic force and position as an emerging military power with interests spanning from Africa to South America. But closer to home, events in the Korean Peninsula threaten to undermine China’s carefully choreographed coming out party.

Kim Jong-Il’s recent launch of a nuclear-capable, long-range ballistic missile was an ill-timed shake-of-the-fist  undermining talks aimed to demilitarize the North’s nuclear ambitions. Worse for the North Korean dictator, the reckless action could come back to haunt his Chinese patrons.

A youthful Fidel Castro gave the former Soviet Union similar headaches. He had to be restrained by the Kremlin on a number of occasions from actions threatening broader conflict with the United States. In once case, Castro wanted to keep fueled, intermediate-range ballistic missiles in Cuba despite agreement between John Kennedy and Nikita Khrushchev to remove them. The Chinese appear more hesitant to control Jong-Il, who manages one of the world’s most oppressive regimes and clings to power only through Chinese material and political goodwill.

The real danger of Chinese tolerance of the North’s saber-rattling, however, lies not in its relations with the United States, but in its relationship with Japan. The North’s nuclear capabilities and lack of diplomatic restraint have alarmed Tokyo.

For now, the Japanese are relying on anti-missile technology to counter any threat. But with debris from launches showering over their prefectures and into nearby waters, it may be a matter of time before Japanese public opinion is roused into a stronger response.

Continued North Korea belligerence could drive a Japanese decision to develop its own nuclear deterrent. This would create a diplomatic tidal wave in Asia still wrestling with memories of 20th century Japanese hegemony. The emergence of a nuclear-weaponized Japan would also create a massive headache for Chinese military planners and upset the delicate balance of power in the Pacific Rim.

At this stage, it would be a simple matter for Beijing to restrain Kim Jong-Il. But like young parents, the Chinese may lack the wisdom to stop their unruly child’s antics before an angry neighbor comes knocking.

~ by deadmanscurve on April 11, 2009.